Gold Analysis for CFD Traders
Real rates, the dollar, positioning, and the unit conventions that quietly cost traders ten times their intended risk.
About this course
Gold is the most written-about market on earth and one of the most misunderstood. It has no earnings, no coupon, and no default risk, so almost every valuation habit you learned from equities is useless here. What actually prices it is the opportunity cost of holding something that yields nothing — and that means real rates, the dollar, and official-sector demand. This course takes you from the four structural drivers through the data that reveals positioning, into the contract mechanics that decide whether your stop was ever realistic, and finishes with a weekly workflow you can run every Sunday. Every lesson closes with a hands-on check you can do with a chart, your broker's contract spec, or a public data source — no programming required.
What you'll be able to do
- Name the four drivers of gold and identify which one is in charge right now
- Read gold through real yields instead of nominal rates or headlines
- Use ETF holdings and futures positioning as crowding context, not signal
- Get units, lot sizes, and point values right so a stop means what you think
- Size a gold CFD position that survives the swap, the spread, and the event
Prerequisites
- No programming required — you will need a chart, a calculator, and your broker's contract specs
- Basic CFD familiarity: lots, margin, and how a stop works
- The macro course helps but is not required — we define each driver as we go
Learning path
4 parts · 17 lessons · every lesson ends with a practical check you can do with a chart, your broker's contract spec, or a public data source — no programming required.
Part 1What Gold Actually Is
No cash flows, no default risk, and a stock-to-flow ratio unlike any other commodity. Start here or everything downstream is guesswork.
5 done
What Gold Actually Is
No cash flows, no default risk, and a stock-to-flow ratio unlike any other commodity. Start here or everything downstream is guesswork.
- 01Beginner8 min
The Four Drivers of Gold
Real rates, the dollar, crisis demand, and official buying. They are not four independent signals — and knowing which one is in charge is most of the job.
- 02Beginner9 min
Gold Is Not a Normal Commodity
Above-ground stock dwarfs annual mine supply by a factor of sixty. Once you internalise that, supply-shock narratives stop being tradeable.
- 03Intermediate11 min
Real Rates: The Dominant Driver
Gold pays nothing, so its opportunity cost is the real yield. Here is how to measure that relationship — and when it stops working.
- 04Intermediate10 min
The Dollar and the Mirror Trade
Gold is quoted in dollars, so the inverse link is partly mechanical. The useful part is understanding when it breaks.
- 05Beginner9 min
Units, Lots, and Quote Conventions
A troy ounce is not a kitchen ounce, and one broker's 'point' is another broker's ten dollars. Get this wrong and you risk ten times what you intended.
Part 2Who Actually Buys It
Jewellery demand is the biggest line item and the least useful. Financial flows set the price. Here is how to read each one.
4 done
Who Actually Buys It
Jewellery demand is the biggest line item and the least useful. Financial flows set the price. Here is how to read each one.
- 01Intermediate10 min
ETF Holdings and Futures Positioning
Two weekly series tell you whether the trade is crowded. Both are lagging — which is fine, because crowding is exactly what you want to know late.
- 02Intermediate9 min
Central Bank Demand
Slow, price-insensitive, structural. It builds a floor over years and tells you almost nothing about next week.
- 03Advanced11 min
Supply, Demand, and Where Price Is Set
Jewellery is the biggest line item and the least useful. Price is set at the margin by the smallest, fastest flow.
- 04Intermediate9 min
Mine Supply and Recycling
Mines take a decade to build and recycling responds within months. That asymmetry is the entire supply story.
Part 3Trading It
Volatility by session, what happens to your hedge in a crash, and the carry costs that quietly eat a swing trade.
4 done
Trading It
Volatility by session, what happens to your hedge in a crash, and the carry costs that quietly eat a swing trade.
- 01Intermediate10 min
Volatility and Session Behaviour
Gold makes its range in New York. A stop sized on Asian-session volatility is a donation.
- 02Advanced11 min
Gold in a Liquidity Crunch
In the first two weeks of a real crash, gold gets sold. Your hedge becomes a funding source. Plan for it.
- 03Intermediate11 min
Sizing, Carry, and Margin
Gold CFDs charge you for holding a non-yielding asset. Over a three-week swing trade, carry can cost more than your stop.
- 04Advanced12 min
Trading Gold Through Data
Turn a real-yield scenario into an expected gold move, then decide whether your stop can survive it.
Part 4Applied Analysis
The ratio, the seasonality trap, a driver scorecard that handles conflicts, and the complete weekly loop you can run every Sunday.
4 done
Applied Analysis
The ratio, the seasonality trap, a driver scorecard that handles conflicts, and the complete weekly loop you can run every Sunday.
- 01Intermediate10 min
The Gold/Silver Ratio
The oldest relative-value gauge in metals — and one of the most reliable ways to lose money by assuming it mean-reverts.
- 02Advanced10 min
Seasonality and the Noise Test
Gold has a famous seasonal pattern. Here is how to check whether any pattern survives being tested against random data.
- 03Advanced12 min
A Gold Driver Scorecard
Four drivers, one score, and an explicit rule for what to do when they disagree — because they often do.
- 04Advanced13 min
The Complete Weekly Workflow
Everything from all four parts on one page you can work through every Sunday: driver read, stop, size, carry, and the go/no-go.
Ready to start?
Jump into lesson 1 — The Four Drivers of Gold. No programming required.
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