Two supply curves with completely different clocks
Mine supply is the slowest-responding variable in any commodity market. From discovery to production is commonly ten to fifteen years — exploration, feasibility, permitting, financing, construction. A price spike today cannot create a mine before next decade. That is why mine output grows at a remarkably steady 1–2% a year regardless of what price does.
Recycling is the opposite. Scrap comes out of jewellery drawers, electronics, and old bars within weeks of a price rise. It is the price-responsive part of supply and the main reason gold supply shocks fade.
Why the lag structure matters
Because mine supply responds on a decade-long lag, correlating this year's price with this year's mine output tells you nothing. The relationship only becomes visible when you test long lags — and even then it is weak, because so much of the response is mediated by recycling and by demand rather than by new mines.
The practical conclusion is blunt: do not build a gold thesis on supply. Every supply argument for gold is a multi-year story, and you are trading a daily chart.
The one supply thing worth watching
All-in sustaining cost (AISC) matters as a floor indicator, not a catalyst. When the price approaches the marginal producer's AISC, supply gets cut and cost support appears. It is a slow, soft floor. It will not save you from a fast real-yield-driven selloff, and it is several hundred dollars below spot most of the time.
How to check this yourself
Put a mine-supply chart and a gold price chart on the same axis and try, by eye, to find the years where supply predicted price. You will struggle. Then shift the supply series forward five, ten, fifteen years. The relationship is real, but it works on a decade lag — far outside the holding period of any CFD trade.