What a weekly process actually needs

By now you have the pieces: the four drivers, the real-yield engine, the dollar caveat, positioning, gold's own volatility structure, the contract mechanics, and the carry costs. The failure mode at this stage is not missing knowledge — it is inconsistent application. You read the drivers when you feel like it and skip them when a setup looks urgent.

A weekly process fixes that by making the sequence non-negotiable. Same order every week, same numbers written down.

The seven steps

Where is price, and what is the range? Get the live price and the recent average true range. Everything downstream is denominated in these units.
What is the dominant driver this week? Name it. If you cannot, you do not have a thesis.
Read the real-yield move. Direction and magnitude over the last month, decomposed into nominals versus breakevens.
Check the dollar for confirmation or conflict. If the two disagree, treat it as a size reduction, not a puzzle to solve.
Check positioning. Is the trade you are about to take already crowded?
Define invalidation in dollars, then size. Never the reverse.
Compute carry and the break-even. If the target is inside break-even, there is no trade.

What the process is for

The output is not a prediction. It is a go/no-go with a number attached: either you have a trade with a defined stop, a defined size, and a target that clears costs, or you have nothing and you wait. Most weeks the honest answer is nothing.

How to check this yourself

Every Sunday, work through one page: read the four drivers, note the crowding state, check the week's calendar, set your stop in dollars, size it against your risk budget, and price the carry. Then write down the one thing that would prove you wrong. If any step fails, stand down — the most valuable output of a weekly plan is the weeks on which it tells you not to trade.